With the negative economic headlines in the U.S. largely easing during the first quarter, there is only one obvious macro concern hanging over the market, but it happens to be a big one. The Brexit negotiations continue to drag on in Europe, and while an agreement has been reached to…
On Yield Curves and Recessions
Over the past few weeks, an increasing number of market-focused articles and analyses have begun to discuss the U.S. Treasury yield curve, which was recently described by CNBC as “one of the most reliable recession indicators in the market”. And indeed, the yield curve’s history of predictions is an impressive…
Investing in the O-Zone Layer?
By most metrics, the U.S. economy has fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis and recession: housing prices have exceeded their pre-crisis peak, the stock market remains at stratospheric levels (even after its late-year stumble), and unemployment measures stand at multi-decade lows. However, the recovery has been extremely uneven, with…
What is "Passive Investing"?
Over the last several years, the ongoing debate over the relative merits of “passive” versus “active” investing has picked up steam, with the passive camp steadily gaining ground against the more traditional active portfolio managers. Lured by the simplicity and low cost of an ever-increasing number of passively-managed index funds…
VIXsplosion? Volatility-Related Investments Implode
In our Q4 2017 newsletter, we noted that the market had entered into an almost unprecedented period of market calm, at least as measured by one major measure of market volatility. We wrote then: “the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), often simplistically referred to as the market’s ‘fear gauge’,…
What's Your (Retirement) Number?
For a while, the TV commercials were seemingly ubiquitous: a variety of working professionals and business owners, walking around their offices or homes with giant 6-figure or 7-figure numbers trailing behind them like overly dependent puppies. The numbers, of course, were meant to represent the workers’ “retirement numbers”, the amount…
Do You Need (More) Life Insurance?
The financial planning process is, by its very nature, an exercise in exploring sensitive and delicate issues. But perhaps no topic generates as much discomfort and anxiety among clients as life insurance. In general, most people—especially younger, healthier individuals with young children—find it difficult to confront the idea of their…
What's Happened In Europe Since Brexit?
Before November’s election surprise, the biggest market-moving story of 2016 was the unexpected result of the Brexit vote in late June, in which the U.K. voted in a referendum to withdraw from the European Union. The market reaction—both in stock markets and in currency markets—was swift and severe, marked most…
Keep An Eye On Bond Yield Spreads
As the Federal Reserve Board continues to consider whether (or when) to resume increasing the target for its benchmark Fed Funds Rate—which has now stood below 1% for a record 96 straight months—investors everywhere are taking a second look at their fixed income holdings, lest they find themselves improperly positioned…
The Election and Your Portfolio
Since the financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession, we’ve all become accustomed to the increasingly active role that politicians (and central banks) have taken in managing economic and market outcomes. For today’s investors, political risk has become a near-constant phenomenon, an integral part of the market’s ongoing background noise. And…
